BEHIND THE BABA STOCK BREAKOUT TODAY; PLUS, VALEANT SURGES ON INOVA SALE

Meanwhile, URBN gets hammered on sales woes

U.S. stocks are mixed this morning, as markets brace for a potentially volatile day of trading. Among specific names on the move today are Chinese internet issue Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA), drug stock Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (NYSE:VRX), and retailer Urban Outfitters, Inc (NASDAQ:URBN). Here's a quick look at what's moving shares of BABA, VRX, and URBN.

Upbeat Forecast Has BABA Stock Buzzing

BABA stock is soaring, up 11% to trade at $139.72, and shattering its previous all-time high of $126.40 reached on May 17. The internet retailer raised eyebrows on Wall Street with its tremendously upbeat revenue forecast, projecting monster-sized growth of 45-49% in the 2018 fiscal year.

The stock is up 59% year-to-date, and has outperformed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by more than 17 percentage points in the last three months. Analysts are feeling the love, as well; all 17 brokerage firms tracking the stock rate BABA a "buy" or better, with 14 of those maintaining "strong buys."

iNova Sale Helps Lift Valeant Stock

VRX stock is up 8% to trade at $13.18 today, after the company agreed to sell its iNova Pharmaceutical business for $930 million. The stock has been on the upswing since touching an eight-year low of $8.31 on April 24, and is testing support at its 80-day moving average. Despite this recent upturn, VRX stock is down 9.2% year-to-date.

The iNova sale may be welcome news for bullish options buyers, however. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), VRX has a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.81, which ranks in the 77th annual percentile.

SEC Filing Digs Into URBN Stock

URBN stock is down 9% to trade at $16.57 today, after the company's 10-Q filing revealed that second-quarter comparable sales are negative in the high single-digit range. Now, Urban Outfitters shares are trading at their lowest level since April 2009.

The retail stock has been in steady decline since peaking above $40 last November, with resistance at its 50-day moving average contributing to a year-to-date loss of roughly 42%. More than 19% of URBN's float is currently sold short, with quite a few bears targeting the stock -- yet analysts remain on the fence. Among 24 brokerage firms following URBN, 16 rate the equity a middling "hold."

THIS GOLD STOCK COULD BREAK OUT

CDE stock could be flashing "buy," if recent history repeats

The shares of gold and silver producer Coeur Mining Inc (NYSE:CDE) have been on a tear since their March lows, and if past is prologue, CDE stock could be headed even higher over the next month. Below, we'll take a look at Coeur Mining stock's recent performance on the charts, and discuss why near-term options buyers may want to take note of CDE shares.

Since hitting an annual low of $7.30 on March 14, CDE has skyrocketed 33% to trade around $9.70. The shares recently came within one standard deviation of their 40-day moving average, after a lengthy time above it -- what has been a "buy" signal in the recent past. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, one month after Coeur stock's last two tests of this trendline, the shares were higher both times, with an average gain of 24.07%. Another rally of that magnitude would place CDE stock well north of recent round-number resistance at the $10 level, and in territory not charted since early 2017, before a massive post-earnings slide.

As alluded to earlier, those looking for another surge for CDE stock can pick up short-term options at a bargain. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 49% is higher than just 10% of all other readings from the past year, suggesting Coeur Mining's near-term options are attractively priced, from a historical volatility standpoint. What's more, CDE shares boast a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 91, indicating the stock has exceeded option players' volatility expectations during the past year.

JUNO, TLRD, LEA STOCKS DOWNGRADED TODAY

Tailored Brands stock is sinking after earnings

Analysts are weighing in on biotech stock Juno Therapeutics (NASDAQ:JUNO), apparel retailer Tailored Brands Inc (NYSE:TLRD), and automotive supplier Lear Corporation (NYSE:LEA). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on shares of JUNO, TLRD, and LEA.

JUNO Stock Cut to "Sell"

BTIG downgraded Juno Therapeutics stock to "sell" from "neutral," sending JUNO shares down 4.8% to trade at $22.58. Still, the shares remain in their channel of higher lows from late 2016, boasting a year-to-date lead of 19%. At the same time, JUNO stock may need to pick up the pace to avoid additional price-target cuts, since its average 12-month price target stands up at $29.50. On the fundamental front, Juno Therapeutics will present at Goldman Sachs' healthcare conference on Tuesday, June 13.

TLRD Stock Dips After Earnings

Tailored Brands reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter earnings, prompting analysts at Deutsche Bank to cut their price target by 33% to $14. In addition, Jefferies trimmed its price target by $2 to $12. The shares have dropped 2.9% to trade at $10.89, as they continue to underperform, though the move pales in comparison to what TLRD options traders were expecting. Tailored Brands stock was trading near $29 back in December; interestingly, it appears a number of short sellers cashed out too soon. During the last reporting period, short interest on TLRD stock declined by 12.2%.

LEA Stock Sinks After Downgrade

Lear Corporation stock is down 2.3% at $149.41, after Morgan Stanley downgraded the shares to "underweight" from "equal weight," and slashed its price target to $134 from $149. LEA stock's uptrend is still in place, however, as it's added almost 27% in the past 12 months, hitting a record high of $153.28 on June 2. Short-term options traders are seemingly well positioned for today's pullback. This is according to Lear's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.14, which ranks in the 83rd annual percentile. This means short-term options traders are more put-skewed than normal.

NVDA, EBAY, PYPL STOCKS UPGRADED TODAY

Citigroup thinks NVDA stock could hit $300

Analysts are weighing in on semiconductor stock NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), auction site eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY), and digital payments platform Paypal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:PYPL). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on shares of NVDA, EBAY, and PYPL.

Citigroup Says NVDA Stock Can Hit $300

Citigroup raised its price target on Nvidia stock to $180 from $145, while adding there's a bull case for a move to $300. NVDA shares closed yesterday at $149.12, after hitting a record high of $149.88, bringing its 52-week gain to 215%. The stock appears set to nab a new all-time peak out of the gate, up 3.3% in electronic trading. Amazingly, there are still plenty of bearish analysts, with 12 brokerage firms rating NVDA stock a "hold" or "strong sell." Plus, the shares have blown past their average 12-month price target of $126.20.

EBAY Stock Looks to Extend Run Higher After Bull Note

Citigroup also weighed in on eBay stock, upping its price target to $41 from $36. The shares hit a record high of $36.02 on Monday, and closed yesterday at $35.77, up 20.5% in 2017. EBAY shares are trading 1% higher ahead of the bell. In the meantime, options traders have been buying EBAY call options relative to put options at a faster-than-usual clip. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.81, which ranks in the 78th annual percentile.

Analysts Eye Upside for PYPL Stock

eBay spin-off PayPal is also in the good graces of analysts this morning, with Credit Suisse and Berenberg raising their respective price targets to $56 and $57. PYPL stock closed Wednesday at $53.85, after hitting a record high of $54.07 on Monday. The shares have gained 36.4% year-to-date -- and are up another 0.3% in pre-market trading -- yet short sellers keep targeting them. Short interest rose by almost 15% over the past two reporting periods, and now almost a week's worth of potential buying power is sold short. PayPal stock could get a boost on the charts, then, if these bears begin to cover their losing positions.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE FUTURES DOWN AHEAD OF POTENTIALLY VOLATILE TRADING

Several high-profile geopolitical events are on tap today, which could spark big moves in the stock market

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures are trading modestly below fair value ahead of a potentially volatile session for stocks. The caution comes with "Super Thursday" events already underway overseas, including a press conference from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi and a general election in the U.K. Earlier, the ECB left its interest rate unchanged, but removed its reference to future rate cuts, and indicated it is leaving the door open for more quantitative easing (QE), if needed.

Meanwhile, former FBI Director James Comey is scheduled to testify in front of the Senate Intelligence Committee beginning at 10 a.m. ET. This follows yesterday's release of Comey's written testimony, as well as President Donald Trump's nomination of Christopher Wray to head the FBI.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:

Time to buy options on these 2 red-hot chip stocks.
Breaking down Shotspotter stock's big trading debut.
The Dow stock BMO says is "near peak valuation."
Plus, Alibaba stock signals new high after sales forecast; a big sale for Valeant; and two streaming music giants shift gears.

5 Things You Need to Know Today
 
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) saw 832,055 call contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to 482,770 put contracts. The single-session equity put/call ratio edged down to 0.58, and the 21-day moving average remained at 0.61.
At its annual investor day, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) said it expects revenue to grow 45-49% in fiscal 2018, much higher than the expected rate of 36%. Despite a price-target cut at Deutsche Bank, BABA stock is up 13% in pre-market trading, with the e-commerce company on track to open at a record high.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (NYSE:VRX) said it is selling its iNova Pharmaceuticals unit in an all-cash deal valued at $930 million, just days after reports it is looking to put its Bausch & Lomb eye-surgery business on the auction block. VRX stock is trading 3% higher ahead of the bell.
Pandora Media Inc (NYSE:P) and Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) have reportedly ended takeover talks on price disagreements, though sources are suggesting SIRI is looking to invest in P. While Pandora shares are 2.6% higher in pre-market trading, Sirius stock is down 0.4%.
The Fed's balance sheet will be released after tonight's close. J M Smucker (SJM) and Verifone (PAY) will report earnings.

Overseas Trading

Asian stocks for the most part managed modest gains ahead of today's busy schedule in the U.S. and Europe, though Japan's Nikkei underperformed. Specifically, the index gave up early gains, closing down 0.4%, after first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data came in softer than anticipated. Economic data was better out of China, where traders digested stronger-than-expected import and export numbers. As such, the Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong's Hang Seng both added 0.3%. In South Korea, the Kospi managed a 0.2% win, even after its neighbor North Korea reportedly launched cruise missiles during the morning hours.

European stock indexes are also testing positive territory. Investors are considering this morning's ECB decision to leave interest rates unchanged, though it removed a reference to the possibility of "lower" rates in its policy statement. The attention will now shift to Draghi's press conference. However, the FTSE 100 was last seen down 0.2%, amid today's parliamentary election. Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 are both higher, though, sporting respective gains of 0.3% and 0.1%.

THIS RETAIL STOCK COULD SWING BIG AFTER EARNINGS

Tailored Brands will unveil its quarterly results after tonight's close

Men's Wearhouse parent Tailored Brands Inc (NYSE:TLRD) will report earnings after tonight's close. TLRD stock has a history of volatile post-earnings moves, too, with the shares plunging 32.2% the day after reporting in March, and surging 39.7% in December. On average, Tailored Brands shares have swung 23.6% in the session subsequent to reporting over the last five quarters, regardless of direction. This time around, the options market is pricing in a bigger 28.4% swing, based on current implied volatility calculations.

Despite a pretty rough quarter for retail earnings -- with Duluth Holdings the latest in a long line of victims -- TLRD options traders have been buying to open calls over puts at a faster-than-usual clip in recent weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.53 ranks in the 76th annual percentile.

The near-the-money June 11 call has seen the biggest rise in open interest over this time frame, with more than 12,300 positions added. Data from the major options exchanges confirms a notable amount of these calls were bought to open. In other words, speculative traders are betting on TLRD stock breaking out above $11 by next Friday's close, when the front-month options expire.
It's certainly possible that short sellers have been using these long calls to hedge their bearish bets on any upside risk. Nearly 13 million TLRD shares are sold short, just below the eight-year peak of 14.4 million shares hit in the May 1 reporting period. At Tailored Brands stock's average daily volume, it would take about eight sessions to buy back these bearish bets.

Regardless, with earnings on the immediate horizon, elevated volatility expectations are being priced into Tailored Brands's near-term options -- making it more expensive to buy premium. While TLRD's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 158% ranks in the 74th percentile of its annual range, its 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 132.2% is at a 52-week peak.

Technically, Tailored Brands shares have been charting a path lower since they topped out at an annual high of $28.76 in late December, and bottomed at an eight-year low of $9.91 on May 24. Today, TLRD stock is trading up 3.7% at $11, but is running out of steam near its 20-day moving average.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE CLINGS TO GAINS DESPITE OIL SELL-OFF

U.S. stocks are pushing higher despite lingering uncertainty

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is clinging to positive territory, as stocks try to gain despite the lingering uncertainty on Wall Street. Traders continue to monitor the latest developments out of Washington, D.C., where intelligence chiefs are testifying before the Senate, while digesting a huge drop in oil prices. Specifically, July-dated crude futures were down 4.1% at $46.22 per barrel, after domestic crude stockpiles unexpectedly rose last week. Gasoline inventories were also much higher than analysts were anticipating. Despite the seemingly bearish backdrop, and ahead of a few potentially market-moving events tomorrow, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) are holding higher, with all three indexes set to snap two-session losing streaks.

Continue reading for more on today's market -- and don't miss:

The semiconductor stock crashing after earnings.
This Elon Musk tease is pushing Tesla stock to new highs.
Plus, the financial stock up 600% in June; Coca-Cola options active; and Exact Sciences' setback.

Among the stocks with unusual options volume today is The Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO), as the blue chip pulls back after a downgrade to "market perform" from "outperform" at BMO Capital. With the shares down 1.2% at $45.43, puts are crossing at three times the expected pace, thanks to heavy action at the July 44 put. Specifically, it looks like one options trader sold to open 5,000 contracts here, betting on short-term technical floor for Coca-Cola shares. Even though analysts have long been bearish on KO stock -- 10 of 12 say "hold" -- the shares hit an annual high of $46.06 yesterday. 

One of the top Nasdaq performers today is Wins Finance Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:WINS), as the financial stock continues to trade wildly. After being halted earlier, WINS shares are up 79.6% at $145.50, meaning they've now added over 600% since in June. The stock has been unbelievably volatile all year, sporting a 52-week low of $10.34 and a high of $465 for the same period. There's no clear reason for the price action. 

At the other end of the Nasdaq is EXACT Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ:EXAS), after the company announced a public stock offering for $35 a share -- a discount to yesterday's close at $36.59. The molecular diagnostics stock came under pressure a few weeks back, too, after Citron Research weighed in bearishly. Even though EXAS stock was last seen 6.6% lower at $34.17, its year-to-date gain clocks in at almost 156%.